While celebrations for the recent Premier League season are still underway, attention is already beginning to shift towards the start of the next title race. Predicting how next season might unfold is notoriously difficult, especially considering the surprises witnessed this past campaign.
For instance, the eventual champions had only a 5.1% chance of winning the title according to pre-season predictions, yet they quickly established a dominant lead and cruised to victory. In contrast, a team given an 82.2% probability of winning was out of contention by the new year and found themselves battling merely for a UEFA Champions League spot.
The upcoming transfer window will undoubtedly play a significant role in shaping the next title race, with several teams expected to be active. This applies to established powers as much as it does to ambitious clubs like Newcastle United and Aston Villa aiming to climb the table. Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur will also be looking to rebound after disappointing seasons. Not all of these clubs will realistically challenge for the title, but the unexpected nature of the recent season suggests some will take their chance and could be teams to watch closely.
Here is an initial assessment of the likely contenders for the Premier League title in the season ahead.
Honorable Mention: Aston Villa
Under Unai Emery, Aston Villa have shown significant progress, reaching the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals and competing strongly. However, at this stage, they still appear to be a step or two away from being considered a serious dark horse contender for the league title. Breaking into the elite group of Premier League winners is a challenging task for any club outside that established tier, particularly one that may face the demanding schedule of UEFA Europa League or UEFA Conference League football (Thursday-Sunday fixtures). They are certainly viable candidates for a top-four finish, assuming no major setbacks and potentially benefiting from significant summer signings and another unpredictable season.
5. Chelsea
There was a time when Chelsea, despite transitioning to a young squad and having a relatively inexperienced manager, managed to keep pace near the top. However, the past four years have been challenging for the club. Their recent league form includes winning only seven of their last seventeen Premier League matches, and a key player has endured a significant goal drought in the league. Securing a Champions League place, and the financial and prestige benefits that come with it, could significantly aid their squad upgrade efforts. This potential for recruitment is perhaps the only factor currently placing them ahead of Aston Villa, as truthfully, the Blues do not yet appear ready to mount a genuine title challenge.
4. Newcastle United
Being labelled a dark horse contender acknowledges that winning the trophy remains highly unlikely, but if any team fits this description, it is Newcastle United. Eddie Howe has overseen progress at the Magpies similar to Emery`s impact at Villa, though Newcastle currently seem slightly further along. One could argue they have been among the most in-form teams in England since the new year, securing notable victories against top sides like Arsenal and Liverpool. Howe also ended the club`s 65-year wait for a major trophy by winning the EFL Cup. Their potential for another strong campaign hinges significantly on their summer transfer activity – questions remain about retaining key players, and upgrades are likely needed in several positions to truly reach the next level.
3. Liverpool
As things stand, there appear to be three primary contenders for the title – Liverpool, Arsenal, and Manchester City – and their relative positions could shift considerably depending on their business during the summer. Despite recent title celebrations, it`s worth remembering they began the past season with low expectations, partly because they opted against a significant squad refresh. Their gamble on experienced players proving their worth for another season paid off, but eventually, the new management team will need to plan for a future without key figures. Addressing potential departures and successfully upgrading the squad in key areas will be crucial. If they navigate the summer window effectively, they could be strong candidates to retain their title; otherwise, they might find themselves lower down the table.
2. Arsenal
A recurring theme for Mikel Arteta`s Arsenal has been finishing as the runner-up, potentially securing a third successive second-place finish. While their return to the Champions League semi-finals after nearly two decades provided some consolation, their league form this season highlighted the need for a prolific goalscorer to truly contend domestically. It`s also possible that if their rivals fail to execute their transfer plans perfectly, Arsenal`s existing squad might still be competitive enough to challenge for the title in another season of unpredictability. However, the most certain path to finishing first likely involves signing the forward they clearly lack; failing to do so will likely increase the pressure on Arteta.
1. Manchester City
While the recent Premier League season had its unique aspects, Manchester City remains the team most likely to be in contention next season. Despite exiting the title race earlier than expected this time around, the pressure and expectations will quickly return to the Etihad Stadium, especially following recent investments. Rebuilding the squad may be a focus for the summer, particularly with new leadership in place for football operations. They will need to address potential long-term replacements for key midfielders and manage the squad through any recovery periods. However, with Pep Guardiola still at the helm and star players capable of decisive performances, it is difficult to look past them as the team to beat.
